On a crisp Saturday afternoon in Dublin, Ireland delivered a commanding 41-10 win over Japan at the Aviva Stadium, but the scoreboard told only half the story. The victory, sealed by six tries and powered by a late surge from the bench, was meant to be a bounce-back after last week’s bruising loss to New Zealand in Chicago. Instead, it exposed deep cracks in Ireland’s game — cracks that could haunt them when the Wallabies and Springboks come calling.
Try-scoring spree, but no rhythm
Jack Crowley opened the scoring with a penalty, then added a try in the 22nd minute after a slick offload from Nick Timoney, who powered over from close range. The half-time lead of 17-10 felt precarious. Japan, under Eddie Jones, had dominated territory and phase play, but couldn’t finish. Kenji Sato’s try off a lineout drive was the only real reward for their persistence.The second half started with a similar pattern — Ireland kept knocking on the door, but the final pass was too often late or off-target. Then, in the 48th minute, Andrew Porter broke free like a centre, darting through a gap Japan didn’t know existed. That try, described by analysts as “a line that would do any centre proud,” was a rare moment of clarity. Gus McCarthy and Paddy McCarthy followed with tries from scrum-half pick-and-goes, but the execution was sloppy. The crowd, still thinning after the slow start, didn’t roar — they sighed.
Lineout chaos and the ghost of Paul O’Connell
The real story wasn’t the tries. It was the lineout. Again. And again. And again.
Ronan Kelleher’s first throw went awry, setting the tone for a night of chaos. Ireland lost five lineouts in the first 50 minutes. The opposition didn’t even need to jump — they just waited. Paul O’Connell, Ireland’s lineout coach, stood on the touchline with his hands on his hips, watching helplessly. There’s no quick fix here. The system is broken, and the players look unsure of their roles. Against Australia and South Africa, this won’t just cost points — it could cost matches.
“It’s not about technique,” one veteran coach told me after the game. “It’s about trust. These guys don’t believe in each other anymore when the ball goes up.”
Debuts, returns, and a shoulder that might end a dream
Andy Farrell made eight changes from the New Zealand match, including handing a Test debut to 32-year-old Tom Farrell — a Munster centre whose experience was supposed to steady the ship. He didn’t disappoint. But the biggest return was Caelan Doris back as captain at No.8, fresh off his bench heroics against the All Blacks. He was everywhere — tackling, carrying, even cleaning out rucks like a man possessed.
Then came the blow. Late in the match, Jamie Osborne went down after a collision near the sideline. He didn’t get up. The medical staff rushed out. The stadium fell silent. A dislocated shoulder is suspected. If confirmed, it could sideline him for the next two games — a massive blow for a team already lacking width and pace.
Player of the match — and the real hero
Tommy O’Brien was named official player of the match. And he earned it. Four linebreaks. Over 140 metres with the ball. A late try from halfway that left Japan’s defence looking like they were running in sand. He’s the only player who looked like he knew where he was going — and why.
But here’s the twist: O’Brien’s brilliance only highlighted how little else was working. When the rest of the team is fumbling passes and missing lines, one player’s heroics aren’t enough to mask a system in crisis.
Japan’s quiet dignity
Don’t let the scoreline fool you. Japan played with heart. They out-rucked Ireland. They won the breakdown. They kept the ball alive. Kenta Kobayashi was a beast on the lineout, and Seungsin Lee kicked with precision. Eddie Jones has them playing with structure again — something they haven’t had since 2019. They just need one more thing: finishing.
“We’re getting closer,” Jones said post-match. “The effort was there. The discipline was there. Now we need to turn pressure into points.”
What’s next? The real test begins
Ireland’s next two matches — against Australia and South Africa — will define their World Cup preparations. If they can’t fix the lineout, if they can’t find an attacking rhythm, if they can’t trust each other under pressure, then this 41-10 win over Japan will be remembered as a mirage.
The bench did provide energy. The replacements — Tommy O’Brien, Gus McCarthy, and Paddy McCarthy — gave the team life. But that shouldn’t be the plan. That should be the exception.
Right now, Ireland looks like a team trying to remember how to play rugby. And that’s more worrying than any loss.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Ireland’s lineout such a big concern despite winning by 31 points?
Because winning against Japan — a team that dominated territory but couldn’t score — doesn’t fix structural issues. Ireland lost five lineouts, and their throw accuracy was below 70%. Against Australia and South Africa, who attack the lineout aggressively, this could lead to multiple turnovers and scoring opportunities for opponents. Paul O’Connell’s system has failed to adapt since the 2023 World Cup, and the players’ lack of confidence is growing.
How significant is Jamie Osborne’s potential shoulder injury?
Extremely. Osborne was Ireland’s most dynamic full-back this season, averaging 120 metres per game and providing crucial width. A dislocated shoulder typically sidelines players for 6-8 weeks, meaning he’ll miss both Australia and South Africa. With no clear backup who matches his pace and defensive awareness, Ireland’s back three could become a liability in high-pressure games.
Did Eddie Jones’ Japan show real progress?
Yes. Japan had 62% possession, won 14 of 16 rucks, and kept Ireland pinned in their own half for 22 minutes. They were only kept to 10 points because of missed chances — not lack of effort. Kenta Kobayashi and Kenji Sato were standout performers. This was Japan’s most structured performance since Jones returned in 2024, suggesting they’re building toward a stronger World Cup campaign.
Why was Tommy O’Brien named player of the match?
He was the only Irish player who consistently broke defensive lines — four times — and gained 142 metres with the ball. His late try from halfway was a moment of pure individual brilliance. While others struggled with execution, O’Brien created momentum. He’s the only player who looked like he understood the space available, making him the standout in a disjointed team.
What does this result mean for Ireland’s World Cup chances?
It raises more questions than answers. Beating Japan by 31 points doesn’t prove form — it proves depth. Ireland’s attack looked sluggish, their set-piece unreliable, and their decision-making inconsistent. If they can’t fix these issues before facing Australia and South Africa, their title hopes could collapse before the tournament even begins. This win was a stopgap, not a statement.
How did the changes from the New Zealand match impact Ireland’s performance?
The eight changes brought fresh legs but disrupted cohesion. Tom Farrell’s debut was solid but unremarkable, and the back-row reshuffle left gaps in the breakdown. Caelan Doris returned as captain and led well, but the team looked like a collection of individuals rather than a unit. The bench provided energy, but the starting XV lacked rhythm — a sign that too many changes at once may have destabilized the team’s flow.
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